Democratic Party for the People leader Yuichiro Tamaki, left, hands Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba a policy docu
ment at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on Nov. 27, 2024. (Kyodo)
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The outlook for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's government is likely to hinge on a small opposition party that in an electoral breakthrough secured 28 seats in the 465-member House of Representatives.
The Democratic Party for the People quadrupled its seats in the October general election by garnering support from younger voters with what some political analysts called populist pledges, such as measures to boost disposable income as inflation weighs on domestic demand.
As Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner struggle to fulfill their promises after losing their majority in the lower house, the DPP has engaged in policy-by-policy negotiations with the ruling bloc, further increasing its clout.
Expectations are growing that the party's popularity may be peaking amid increasing uncertainty over its ability to push through its priorities as its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, temporarily steps back from public engagements through March following revelations of an affair shortly after the election.
Rintaro Nishimura, an associate at the Asia Group Japan business advisory firm, said Tamaki and the DPP "haven't really solidified" their new base, adding their supporters "could shift to another party any time they want."
The DPP, a successor to the now-defunct left-leaning Democratic Party of Japan, which governed the country for about three years until December 2012, shifted its focus from its core base of labor union supporters with a social-media-driven campaign.
The simplicity of the headline policy, coupled with the effective use of Tamaki's YouTube channel, drew in younger voters -- a typically overlooked demographic in aging Japan, where older generations wield greater influence in national elections.
After a stump speech by Tamaki, a former Finance Ministry bureaucrat, during the election campaign, multiple first-time voters said they felt drawn to the party. Tatsuhiro Fukuda, a 19-year-old university student, said the DPP "is closest to my way of thinking."
"I first heard him speak online and thought he was someone I could trust," he said, adding Tamaki's key policy of raising the income tax threshold from the current 1.03 million yen ($6,540) to drive up take-home pay would help his parents.
A Kyodo News survey showed the DPP received support from people in their 20s, up 11 points to 15 percent, and from those in their 30s, up 9 points to 12 percent, compared to the 2021 general election that allowed the LDP to control the lower house.
According to another poll in mid-December, the support rate for the main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, stood at 11.3 percent, overtaken by the DPP at 12.6 percent.
LDP policy chief Itsunori onodera said the ruling coalition has responded to the requests of the DPP "as much as possible," acknowledging that it would be almost impossible for Ishiba to move ahead with his policy without the backing of Tamaki's party.
However, the DPP has also faced difficulties in promoting its policies, including pushing up the income tax threshold, given that Ishiba, who served as Japan's first minister for regional revitalization, is committed to shoring up flagging local economies.
县知事敦促石破茂保护地方财政收入。
Koji Nakakita, a professor of politics at Chuo University in Tokyo, said, "I have doubts about how long this popularity can last, and the trigger for that will be the negotiations over the income tax policy," referring to the DPP.
自民党提出的提高税收起征点的雄心勃勃的提议是基于1995年以来最低工资的涨幅，而自民党及其执政伙伴公明党则主张进行更温和的调整。
“他们没有理由选择如此大幅度的增长。
Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute, echoed the view, saying that the DPP "should not simply demand a large tax cut, but instead take a broader perspective and remain flexible in its discussions with the ruling parties."
Amid signs of an impasse, the LDP has moved to curb the DPP's leverage in advancing legislation by inviting the 38-seat Japan Innovation Party to join discussions on expanding free education.
Tamaki is also suspending his role as chief for the time being after the party's ethics committee ruled that he damaged its image, even though his efforts have significantly contributed to boosting support for the DPP since its founding in 2018.
中田说：“在党内很难找到其他人能获得同样程度的人气。”
（作者：彼得·马舍特）
